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Thursday, December 22, 2016

Will Russia take military action against Saudi? (Gudayachn reader´s comment and reply)

Please Note: the below comment and reply were posted on US based web site zehabesha.com  
The comment was give for an article  written in Amharic on gudayachn.com  under the title of  ¨የአንካራው የሩስያው አምባሳደር ግድያ ምን አዲስ የፖለቲካ ትኩሳት ሊያስነሳ ይችላል? meaning ¨ What will be the political consequence for the assassination of Russian Ambassador to Turkey? ¨  (http://www.gudayachn.com/2016/12/blog-post_19.html )

Dear Gudayachin,there is one important point that you missed that would actually make your frustration (የጉዳያችን ስጋት ግን ገዳዩ ማንም ሆነ ማን ሩስያ በሳውዲ አረብያ ላይ የአየር ጥቃት ለመፈፀም ከእዚህ ጊዜ የተሻለ የማታገኝ መሆኑን ልታስብ ብትችል እና ብታደርገውስ የሚል ነው)the impossible nightmare.

I don’t think that you have the clue what kind of agreement Saudi Arabia has with United States since 1973. It is a deep politics but I will try to put it as short as possible. At the final days of the second world war three international organizations have been established UN, IMF and World Bank. While IMF was established at the Bretton-wood Conference all participant countries agreed that the US dollar to be a world reserve currency. And they fixed 35 America dollar worth 1 ounce of gold. Which means if any country wants to change its dollar reserve to gold, it can go to US Federal Reserve Bank and change the equivalent amount of gold.And because of that every country used dollar as transaction currency between countries. And dollar demand skyrocketed. At this point the United States government starts to print dollar without having equivalent amount of gold reserve. And France and Germany started suspicious that the US government is printing and distributing just a fiat money with no back of gold. So, they asked the US Federal reserve to change their excess dollar reserve into gold. By then the US government did one funny thing. All this happened in 1973 while Richard Nixon was on power. Just one morning Nixon come to TV screen and told the world that the US closed the gold window. Which means, the US government never change your dollar into gold. “Might is Right” worked at this point. But the Americans were not stupid. They know that unless and otherwise they do something, no body needs to have dollar or use dollar as an international transaction currency. So, before they closed the gold window, the then national security adviser (later Secretary of State) to President Nixon, Henry Kissinger went to Saudi Arabia to cut the infamous “Petro-Dollar-Security Pact.” The crux of the pact was just the Saudi-Arabian Government at the start and later all the gulf monarchies will sale their oil with US DOLLAR ONLY and in return United States will give protection for the monarchies. And since then every country needs the US dollar to buy oil. For example, Euro is stronger than US Dollar but Germany must have the US Dollar to buy oil from middle east. No country will sale it by euro. So, the US Simply print a bunch of green paper and distribute to the world. Any gulf nation that would try to challenge the deal will face the fate of Saddam Hussien.

So, Dear Editor-in-Chief of Gudayachin, it is not as simple as you imagined to carpet bomb Saudi Arabia by any force including putin unless he gets the green light from US. It will be a nuclear confrontation. The power of united states lies on the power of dollar. And any earthly power that challenge the status quo is a deadly threat to US. And Putin knows this better than anybody else. Frankly speaking, there is near to zero probability that the Saudi security apparatus has a significant role to kill the ambassador. Of course the assassin is not just a nut lone assassin. There would be strong hand. Who has interest in Syria? Russia, Iran on one camp; and Israel, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United States on the other camp. So, we can predict that the masters of the planet (either CIA or the Mossad or Jointly could be the the real architects). May be that is a trap by these two intelligence apparatuses to drag putin to deploy boots in Syria then they will let him bleed white like the red army faced in Afghan (1979-1989). I have no time to list here what interest each of those countries have on Syria. But all of them have a strategic interest which is a game-changer both Geo-politically and Geo-economically.

Dawit F. Mestesahil
December 20, 2016 at 5:24 pm

Gudayachn Reply to the above comment

Thank you Dawit for your comment.

You explained well how strong the Saudi security is protected by US both militarily and economically. However, I think the 1970s and 80s situation has started to be changed since 9/11 incidence. An official investigation result of the 9/11 terrorist action on New York city,  finger to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia means may not mentioned as state but the terrorists family and economic  base is in Saudi Arabia. United States criticised both directly and indirectly  as Saudi money was using to fund terrorism. However, due to strong economic and strategic interest,  US government could not push the issue officially.

Since 2010, Saudi movement in middle east is quite changing. Saudi began to make her self as ¨regional supper power ¨ country.  This was made together with UAE and Qatar. Since March, 2015, Saudi involved in Yemen civil war. Recently it began to build  military camps in the Horn of Africa (Eritrea and Djibouti on process). Many international terrorists root of fund was found from Saudi side. In all this situation still US lost her courageous to control the  Saudi move. On the other hand US is attracted with Saudi purchasing power of armaments and sophisticated military jets from her own market. Therefore even US knows Saudi is moving to ¨the wrong direction¨,  it focuses only on her current interest. However, it does not mean US do not have fear on Saudi moves. That is why the US strategic interest in middle east is started to change.  The good example is the US agreement with Iran on Iranian Nuclear power installation. 

Currently US do not feel safe from Saudi money funded terrorists act in different factional groups in middle east. Because US know such a kind of gup will creat an  ideological challenge to west with antagonistic situation between the west and middle east in future. 

Regarding Russia, Saudi means one of the source of fund to Syria and Yemen conflict.In fact Iran involvement, on the other side, should not be forgotten. So even if Syria war has stopped, Russia may think as  there is no guarantee unless Saudi and Quatar are obliged to collect their hands from any form of involvement in supporting opposition groups particularly in Syria. 

Therefore if Russia took some military action on Saudi,  I think no body should  be surprised . In fact Russia decision  to take some military action against Saudi may not lead to full scale war. Because Russia may not be ready to do in such a way. But it may plan to give some lesson through bombarding some strategic military places in Saudi. Here in all move US might be consulted at the back door. The question that should be raised here is that what is the gain that US and Russia  will get from Russia military act against Saudi? I think  to Russia; one, it will show her shadow on middle east. Two, it will help to increase oil price which gives market benefit to Russia Oil production (in fact other producers will be benefited also). Three, it will give guarantee to Syria and Yemen peace by giving strong warning to Saudi.  Incase of US; it will increase the importance of US army presence in Saudi. So US will increase her price on Saudi. US can say, if US is not present in Saudi, Saudi security is nothing but exposed to foreign powers. 

Generally Russia action on Saudi has bilateral interest for both US and Russia from different perspectives. It is quite clear also US did not plan to clash directly with Saudi. But a lesson given by Russia may help US to speak louder and boost as its presence help Saudi not to go Russia to full scale war. Saudi will reflect the same motto.  Then life continues as usual. 

December 22, 2016 at 3:23 am

ጉዳያችን GUDAYACHN www.gudayachn.com

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